Alabama’s Playoff Hopes Surge After Latest CFP Rankings Shift

Alabama’s chances of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) took a significant step forward on Tuesday. The Crimson Tide (9-3) moved ahead of Miami (10-2) in the second-to-last CFP rankings, jumping to No. 11 while the Hurricanes slid to No. 12. If these rankings hold through Sunday, Alabama would claim the final at-large spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff.

Key Rankings Movement

Ohio State fell to No. 6 after its loss to Michigan in Week 14, while Oregon held firm at No. 1. Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Georgia rounded out the top five, with Georgia ranked as the highest two-loss team.

Top Four Seeds (First-Round Byes):

Oregon
Texas
SMU
Boise State

Boise State, ranked five spots ahead of the Big 12’s top team, Arizona State, is in a strong position. A win against No. 20 UNLV on Friday would likely secure their bye, keeping them ahead of either Big 12 champion Arizona State or No. 16 Iowa State. If Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game, Boise State could even move up to No. 3.

Projected First-Round Matchups:

No. 12 Arizona State at No. 5 Penn State
No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Notre Dame
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Georgia
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State

These matchups could shift depending on results from championship games. Penn State faces Oregon for the Big Ten title, while Georgia takes on Texas in the SEC Championship. Both Notre Dame and Ohio State seem locked into hosting first-round games, regardless of other outcomes.

Alabama vs. Miami: The Key Battle

Alabama’s leap over Miami is the most notable ranking change and could prove decisive. Neither team plays this weekend, giving Alabama a perceived edge in securing the final playoff spot. CFP chair Warde Manuel cited Alabama’s strength of schedule as a key factor, noting the Tide’s 3-1 record against ranked opponents compared to Miami’s 0-1.

“Alabama’s wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri carried more weight,” Manuel explained. Miami’s lone ranked loss came against Syracuse, while Alabama’s toughest defeat was a blowout by Oklahoma, which finished the season 6-6.

Controversy Brews

The rankings decision has already sparked debates about SEC favoritism, with the ACC voicing displeasure. Miami’s season, marked by a porous defense and close games, may have hurt its case despite a potent offense led by Cam Ward. Meanwhile, Alabama’s recent struggles, including a loss to Vanderbilt, haven’t derailed its playoff hopes.

As the final rankings approach, all eyes will be on the committee’s decisions, especially if Clemson upsets SMU. Whether Alabama or Miami gets the nod could hinge on championship weekend drama—and spark further debates about conference bias.